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Playing A Game You Can Win
Imagine a simple coin-tossing where you win whatever you stake if heads comes up, lose what you stake if tails comes up, and you are charged 1% of your stake each turn to play. Can you win money at this game? If you are familiarwith the concept of expectancy, then you will probably answer �No' since over many turns the amount won will be equal to the amount lost (assuming the coin is a fair one) and after factoring in the 1% cost of playing you will lose money overall.In fact, there is a way to win this game, and that is to understand that the longer you play, the more you will lose, so the optimum strategy is to bet everything you have on just one toss of the coin; just like Ashley Revell did when he sold everything he owned, took the $135,300 to Las Vegas, and bet it all on �Red' on one spin of the roulette wheel. Mr. Revell was fortunate and he won, but I am not recommending that you bet everything you have on one trade!Obviously risking everything on one trade is not a useful strategy since we want a we can play for long periods of time to generate a consistent income. So how can we change the so that we can win? There are three aspects to the which can be adjusted to increase our chances of winning consistently:� We can tip the chance of a winner in our favor from 50/50� We can increase the size of the payout from 1:1� We can reduce the cost of playing the gameTipping the chances of a winner is not possible in a fair coin toss game, but it is possible in trading.

There are two ways to approach this: identify conditions that are more favorable to your winners and include them in your system definition, or identify circumstances where a loser is more likely, and skip those trades. For example, if you notice that most of your winners are entered on days where the overall market has moved in the same direction as your trade, then only enter trades when the overall market is moving in the correct direction. This means that your trade is in the same direction of the overall market, rather than against it.Another example might be that trades that are entered just before major news announcements, like earnings calls, often get stopped out as losers due to increased volatility, so you should skip those trades.There may be many patterns of winners and losers that you can identify for your own systems and careful study of past trades is definitely worthwhile. Note that we do not want to increase our win percentage too significantly (i.e. to greater than 60%) since this would indicate that we have

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